Christina Jung
The Korea Times
06/24/09
The time has come for South Korea to lay its cards on the table and openly discuss what is to be done about North Korea.News of sanctions and "stern'' measures are now widespread, and play a necessary part in curbing the North's deeply misguided nuclear ambitions. While there may never be a final resolution to this highly complex issue, South Korea would do well to steer clear of one option that appears to be gaining traction in conservative circles ― the acquisition of its own nuclear weapons in order to conclusively deter the North.Acquiring a nuclear weapon to balance the ostensible South-North power asymmetry may provide immediate relief and perhaps a thinly veiled sense of security, but it would nonetheless be devastating to the South's long-term interests in a number of ways. The most obvious result of the acquisition of nuclear weapons would be further regional destabilization. It would needlessly flare up tensions between the South and its neighboring countries, particularly China and Japan. More significantly, a nuclear South would aggravate tensions with the North, and may culminate in a North-South arms race in a worst-case scenario. None of these outcomes would be conducive to any of the goals that the South wishes to achieve, both within the peninsula and throughout the greater Northeast Asian region.From a more global perspective, the acquisition of nuclear weapons would undermine the international status that the South has built as a non-nuclear weapon state. South Korea is a signatory to numerous international and regional treaties on nuclear weapons, the most central of which is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Acquiring a nuclear weapon would thus effectively render null and void its participation in all of these significant agreements, which prohibit nuclear proliferation and possession. The South's inconsistency would also undoubtedly draw the criticism and ire from its allies and partners, dealing a significant blow to its credibility in global affairs.And if there was ever a surefire way to ensure that the North never gives up its nuclear weapons, it would be for the South to acquire its own. One significant leverage the South maintains over the North lies in its nuclear weapon-free status, for it gives the South a legitimate right to demand that the North dismantle its nuclear capability. Without this leverage, the South would be a hypocrite to demand nuclear dismantlement from the North, and would give the North even more reason to cling to its nuclear program. The suggestion of a nuclear option therefore defies all logic in the context of the South's foremost aims toward the North, which is to persuade the hermit regime to relinquish its nuclear weapons program.Furthermore, those who argue for the South's acquisition of weapons base their claims on the weak presumption that the North's nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to the South. To be sure, we cannot entirely preclude the possibility that the North will consciously seek to impose nuclear destruction on the South. Nonetheless, we can be fairly certain that this scenario is unlikely, as any pursuit by the North to destroy the South would inevitably bring self-destruction in the form of retaliatory strikes. While it would be unwise to underestimate the physical threat posed by nuclear capability, it is now apparent that, for the North, nuclear weapons have become a tool of power consolidation domestically and of bargaining leverage internationally ― and not much more. Combined with the assurances of protection under Washington's nuclear umbrella, we can therefore be reasonably confident that no direct existential threat exists.Finally, there is always the classic concern over human error. As history attests, humans are particularly prone to blunders involving judgment on delicate issues. Obviously, the only way to guarantee that no nuclear mishaps occur is to deny their possession; once a nation acquires nuclear weapons, there will always be an infinite number of opportunities for error and misuse.And this should be at the heart of South's pursuit to dismantle the North's capabilities ― the potential for error is always too large.South Korea possesses globally competitive nuclear power plant construction technology, and the country could easily exploit this expertise to develop its own nuclear weapons program. To do so would be tragic, however. Such technology should remain a force for good ― as an invaluable tool to export peaceful nuclear energy use worldwide, especially in high-risk areas ― and must not be abused as a means to satisfy a myopic desire for power.Instead of wringing hands over whether the South should or shouldn't acquire nuclear weapons, the nuclear acquisition card should be pushed aside in favor of those more in harmony with its long-term interests. One card off the table will help the South's decision over the North, if even marginally.
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